Europe's new link to the Caspian

The South Caucasus is often an excluded or forgotten issue in the EU foreign policy debate. A simplified description of EU's FP priorities would yield the following distribution: the Middle East, Lebanon, environment, relations with China (less so with Russia) are in while the Western Balkans, Turkey, and the Transatlantic relationship are out.

Omitting the South Caucasus from the list of priority issues is unfortunate and the EU should revers this. The Commission's answer to Europe's new East is insufficient. The ENP falls short of providing the heavily political support which the South Caucasus countries need in order to develop into full fledged democracies with functional market economies. Considering the neighborhood -- a patronizing Russia, about to be nuclear Iran, politically unstable Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan and radical Islam perpetrating through Iran -- the South Caucasus need an anchor in order to find room for reforms. Europe on its part needs a stable, developed and integrated South Caucasus in order to make the most of the energy potential in the Caspian region. Second, a secure and democratic South Caucasus is a stable bridge for Europe's entry into Central Asia.

If the region bulks under instability, Europe's chances to secure new and non-Russian energy supplies will significantly diminish. Further, the region could slip back into the Russian orbit of influence, which means the gateway to Central Asia will be closed at the Georgian-Black Sea coast.

Europe should urgently do three things in order to better its position in the strategic game being played over the South Caucasus. First, up its political dialogue and engagement through offering broader commitments and a long-term association perspective for the South Caucasus countries. Second, European policy towards Moscow needs better coordination. A united Europe vis-a-vis Russia will ensure a more assertive Europe in the South Caucasus and a more sturdy European energy position. With the enlargement of the EU to Bulgaria and Romania, the broader Black Sea region has become Europe's own back yard.

In the end, European endeavors to resolve the series of frozen conflicts in the South Caucasus region need to be more assertive and explicit.

For now, Europe is choosing to remain a political light-weight in the region, cautious of over committing itself. Ensuring that Europe plays a major role in this region is perhaps the single most important strategic decision the EU will have to make in the upcoming year. The stakes -- energy and security -- are enormous if the opportunity to affect change in the South Caucasus countries and their assimilation towards the EU is lost.

-bg